After an uninspiring start to the tips yesterday, today’s matches appear to be more clear-cut. Knowing now how lively the new courts at Flushing Meadows are, and the nature of the competition without hawk-eye line calls or spectators, it should allow our tips to be far more accurate.
For today’s session, I have outlined 3 possible selections which I would recommend including as an accumulator. I believe these matches to have more statistical probability of success than their odds would suggest, but equally due to their ‘favourite-status’, they will not warrant much value as a single money-line bet.
John Isner (USA) to beat Hubert Hurkacz (Pol) at 7/10
The nature of this match will be no surprise to anyone coming into this encounter. The six foot 11 American will look to dominate behind serve and use his immense height and long levers to get on the front foot in every rally he can. Hurkacz by contrast will have one goal in mind; extending the rallies.
This match therefore is going to be a classic ‘cat-and-mouse’ encounter, and in these scenarios it can usually come down to who holds their nerve the best in the bigger moments and who can come up with a moment of brilliance on the important points. This aside, Isner has a fantastic record playing on home soil, and the lively court surface will make his serve even more troublesome for Hurkacz.
Hurkacz however is no slouch, standing at 6″6 the Polish player can definitely pack a punch. Alongside this, he also has tremendous movement which enables him to cover ground much better than others of a similar stature. What will concern fans of Hurkacz however is seemingly his inability to trouble players on return (Winning 18% of return games, and 48% of points behind second serves). In this match-up return is key for the Polish player, given he will not win a ‘serve-off’ against the American. Hurkacz also holds a 64% break points saved record; which despite not being awful, leaves him vulnerable in clutch moments that Isner so frequently forces his opposition into.
This match will be both players return to competitive tennis; however again Isner holds the slight edge here, having played in the All US Exhibition event a few weeks back. It is more than possible we will see a slow start from the young Polish competitor, and an early break will be more than likely. This match will be close, but should be edged by the American.
David Goffin (Bel) to beat Borna Coric (Cro) at 8/13
This match brings two players of a similar style together in ‘technically’ a second round match-up. The reason for the inverted commas stems from the fact that Goffin has not played a first round and Coric only played 7 games vs the Frenchman Benoit Paire yesterday prior to his early retirement.
I believe this match will purely be won by the player able to produce the more aggressive tennis, and generate more spin allowing the lively court-surface to give weaponry to areas of their games that otherwise wouldn’t be troublesome for players at this level of competition. Goffin is arguably the more talented of the two, currently sitting top 10 in the ATP ranks compared to Coric currently ranked at 33. The Belgians ability to redirect balls on the run using a compact swing and heavy spin I believe will allow him to get his opposition off balance and force either errors, or positions of offensive potential which he will be able to pounce upon.
Couple the above with the fact that Coric’s injury concerns still haven’t been questioned, because Paire put near enough no pressure on the Croatian during their opening round match. Goffin by contrast will be more than happy making this a physical encounter, and I believe this should ultimately play hugely into his favour.
Treble of John Millman, John Isner and David Goffin at 3.5/1
The above two matches should be included with John Millman (Aus) to provide a useful treble for the day/nights proceedings.
Details on the John Millman match-up can be found on yesterdays tips, highlighting why he should be seen as clear favourite to beat Adrian Mannarino (Fra).