Yesterday’s tennis as expected was a much more ‘clear-cut’ affair, with all three of our selections coming in clutch. It appeared to be heading south during the Millman encounter, but after some long gruelling rallies the Australian managed to turn it around winning in a third set tie-break to bring the 3.5/1 treble home.
Today’s tennis includes lots of possible value on the market, and we will outline our top selections for the day with analysis as to why you might want to invest your bankroll in their matches.
Reilly Opelka (USA) to beat Diego Schwartzman (Arg) at 1/1
This match is a classic case of tall against small. Reilly Opelka is the tallest ever top 100 player on the ATP Tour, standing at 7″0′. When compared to his opponent today in Schwartzman who stands at 5″7′ this is a monumental 1 foot 5 inch difference between the two players. This height difference ultimately dictates the match we are likely to see; Opelka will be looking to dominate behind first serves and high ‘kicker’ second serves to grant him the advantage whereas Schwartzman will be keen to elongate the rallies and get the tall man on the run.
These matches anecdotally favour the bigger servers, as their serve can be untouchable on a good day meaning they don’t necessarily have to perform well to win, whereas the smaller player will be forced to play high percentage tennis throughout the match – and still will run the risk of being blown away by the flat ground-strokes of the opponent.
Both of these players had somewhat easy encounters in their opening rounds winning in straight sets, but today will give us a much closer match. Expect to see possibly 3 sets with the American edging it, giving him the status as underdog value in our eyes.
Daniil Medvedev (Rus) to beat Marcos Giron (USA) 2-0 at 1/2
Daniil Medvedev will not lose this match. The Russian, who not only won this event last year but also broke into the top 10 for the first time, should have far too much quality for the American.
Giron usually performs on the challenger tour where match wins are much easier to come by, and despite earning his maiden masters 1000 win against Mackenzie McDonald (another player who spends most of the year on the challenger circuit), he should struggle with the step-up to this level.
Both players field a similar style, with neither looking to be ‘hyper-aggressive’ being much more comfortable from the back of the court building the point strategically and waiting for errors from the opposition. This being said, Medvedev has the stronger serve and is likely to benefit from a few cheap points, and ultimately should be the least likely of the two to break down and give unforced errors away early on in points. It is because of this that Medvedev should not drop a set, and becomes a good value selection at 2-0.
Four-fold Accumulator – Zverev (Ger), Berretini (Ita), Medvedev (Rus) 2-0 and Bautista-Agut (Spa) at 3.3/1
Including the above Medvedev straight sets into this accumulator, there is good favourite value spread across the market warranting another accumulator today.
Alexander Zverev, the young German and one of our tournament favourites here at Serving Up Clutch, faces off against the multiple Slam winner Andy Murray. Unfortunately for Murray his dream return to the top level of the sport following hip surgery will likely be cut short as he is unlikely to be able to match the physicality Zverev will bring to the table. Murray was visibly uncomfortable following his epic 3 set match vs Frances Tiafoe; and Zverev will look to drive the nail into the coffin using his tremendous consistency to outwork the Brit. At 4/9 he should be first on your list for an accumulator.
Matteo Berretini will play against Emil Ruusuvuori, a matchup that he should in no way lose. Berretini is now an established top 10 player, and his big serves and powerful ground-strokes should be enough to drive the 21 year old Finnish counter-puncher off the court. At 1/4 many would skim past this match, but as part of an accumulator there is very little chance this leg will let you down.
Bautista-Agut, the veteran top 20 Spaniard, will take on Richard Gasquet in what is shaping up to be one of the picks of the day quality wise. Bautista-Agut plays a very flat game, looking to keep his shots a high percentage by aiming into bigger spaces on the court, but keeping his opponent on the back foot by playing low over the net. By contrast, Gasquet looks to be a little more creative by varying his spins, pace and trajectory on the ball to give him the upper hand. Expect to see longer rallies in this match, with Bautista-Agut targeting the technically unorthodox forehand of Gasquet. At 8/15 this match will be close, but should be edged out by the Spaniard to add some real value to our accumulator today.