MIAMI MASTERS – ROUND 3

We came close with our most recent accumulator, with Bublik and Hurkacz winning in straight sets, but Evans losing from a set up, and Harris’ withdrawal making his match with Bautista Agut void. However, we tweeted out an underdog value pick of Isner to beat McDonald (11/10) which came in, so for the 2nd Round we covered our losses and had a 0.1 unit profit. Now that everyone in the draw has played at least one match, we have a better idea of how fit and motivated certain players are, as well as who enjoys the conditions.

Ruusuvuori to beat Ymer 1/2

The Finn produced a fantastic performance to take out 3rd seed Alex Zverev in the previous round. He also had to overcome the talented Carlos Alcaraz in Round 1. He clearly enjoys these conditions, as the relatively slow courts give him time to wind up and hit aggressively. He is much better at penetrating the court here than Ymer, making him the clear favourite.

Bublik to beat Duckworth 8/15

We backed the Kazakh to beat Djere in the previous round, and whilst Djere made life difficult for him at times, he came through 6-3 6-4. Whilst Duckworth beat Goffin convincingly in the previous round, we are expecting a less stern test for Bublik than Djere offered. His decision making was questionable at times last time out, but he seemed very motivated, and his huge serve and brilliant shot making ability saw him through. We expect the same to happen this time out.

Tiafoe to beat Lajovic 1/2

The American produced a superb performance to take out Evans in the previous round from a set down. His power off both wings as well as his willingness to come forward and finish the point earned him the victory. He has a decent record in Miami, and in fact is 2-0 in 3rd Round matches here, beating Berdych in 2018 and Ferrer in 2019. Lajovic’s form has been patchy, ending 2020 with 5 losses back to back. It has been much of the same this year, however he reached the 4th Round at the Australian Open and beat a disinterested Medvedev in Rotterdam. Tiafoe will be able to rush Lajovic with his sheer power, and is in better form at the moment, making him a heavy favourite here.

Shapovalov to beat Hurkacz 8/15

The Canadian played some brilliant tennis in his last tournament in Dubai, reaching the semi finals but unable to close out victory against an in-form Harris from a set and 4-2 up. After a scare against Ivashka in the previous round, he came through in 3 sets. Hurkacz’s last match wasn’t plain sailing, but he managed to secure a 7-6(5) 6-4 win over Kudla. Both players are very strong behind serve, but Shapovalov’s superior groundstrokes and overall shot making, as well as his ability to move forwards and finish the point, means he should come through here. Four fold: 4.29/1

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