Our round 2 accumulator was a great success, bringing in a healthy 3.45 units of profit.
All of the highlighted matches won in straight sets for our round 2 selections, and we will be looking to take this momentum into our selections for the quarter finals tonight in the Adelaide 2 and Sydney ATP250 events.
For those who haven’t watched this week, the events are played on outdoor acrylic hard-courts. This surface coupled with the Australian summertime heat is causing exceptionally fast playing conditions which leads to very exciting matches!
Our selections for the quarter-final matches can be found below:
Andy Murray (GBR) to beat David Goffin (BEL) at 8/13 (Sydney):
Both of these players have made somewhat overdue returns to the latter stages of ATP tour events this week in Sydney. For even an armchair tennis follower, both of these names will be well known and their prestige and quality on court needs little explanation.
Former world number one Murray has made a good return this week after a disappointing round one exit last week at the hands of Facundo Bagnis. Murray overcame Viktor Durasovic in straight sets in his opening round, and battled past seed two Nikoloz Basilashvili late last night to reach the quarter finals.
Goffin by contrast has had a slightly simpler route, not dropping a set on his road to the quarter finals; comfortably beating Facundo Bagnis and Denis Kudla respectively.
Putting aside their current form, both of these players know each others game very well, having met six times in ATP events, and there will be no surprises when they meet in Sydney tonight.
Murray leads the head-to-head 6-0, and this is no surprise when evaluating both player quality and the match-up. Murray tends to mix his depth and spin, and opts often to construct longer rallies at lower pace before dealing his final killer blow often off the backhand wing. Goffin by contrast, tends to enjoy playing up on the baseline and counter punching flat fast-paced balls back into the open space his opponent provides. Naturally as Murray tends to not provide this, and due to his ‘ceiling’ level being far greater than Goffins, it is no surprise that he has dominated this match-up historically.
We do not believe this trend will alter tonight, and Murray therefore provides a solid 8/13 value selection.
Maxime Cressy (USA) to beat Dusan Lajovic (SRB) at 4/7 (Sydney):
Whilst not ‘strictly’ a quarter-final match, this match still provides value and should not be overlooked.
Due to an unfortunate rain-delay in Sydney this second-round encounter was postponed until tonight, with the winner due a quarter-final spot and a chance to take on the in-form Dan Evans of Great Britain.
Maxime Cressy has surprised many with his early season form, carrying on from his impressive final run last week in Melbourne with a comfortable straight-sets opening round victory against Adrian Mannarino. Lajovic by contrast, has had an underwhelming start to 2022, winning none of his ATP Cup matches last week, and delivering his first win of the season last night against Davidovich-Fokina.
Cressy has a very clear game-plan and we don’t see that altering tonight; net-rush both on serve and return with a hyper-aggressive gameplan, swiping flat shots off both backhand and forehand (as well as a powerful flat serve, his biggest weapon), and approaching behind this on every occasion.
Lajovic by contrast, tends to play quite deep within the court, looking to utilise his great depth control to pin his opponents back and force openings to hit angles or force errors from his opposition players trying to overpress.
This match-up is therefore ideal for Cressy, as he will have plenty of time to reach the net and dominate the rallies from the forecourt. It is likely he will have opportunities to exploit the vulnerabilities Lajovic has on serve, whereas Lajovic may get no looks at breaking Cressy due to his explosive serve.
Overall therefore, it would be unwise to overlook the in-form Cressy as a good selection at 4/7 tonight.
Marin Cilic (CRO) to beat Tommy Paul (USA) at 8/11 (Adelaide 2):
Whilst this match is naturally harder to call than the two above, it brings an exciting 8/11 selection to the table.
Marin Cilic has hit the ground running this 2022 season, with a semi-final run last week in Adelaide and appears to be looking likely to at least repeat that result this week.
Tommy Paul, who lost out in the quarters last week to eventual winner Gael Monfils, has also impressed this week with high quality comprehensive wins against Frances Tiafoe and Benjamin Bonzi respectively.
This match will be a highly competitive encounter, with Marin Cilic likely being the dominant force controlling rallies with powerful forehands and serves, meanwhile Paul will utilise his tremendous athleticism to force Cilic into ‘overpressing’ and gain a foothold in the match via this fashion.
Overall, I believe that although this match could swing either way, the clear differential in shot pace and serve quality means that whilst Cilic is in this seemingly consistent vein of form (or as consistent as early season form can be), gives him the edge. Therefore, although risky, an 8/11 selection here appears to be a justifiable addition to our accumulator.
Treble at 3.03/1