CAGLIARI AND MARBELLA ATP – QUARTER-FINAL TIPS

The second round brought us slightly more success than the first round, with Fritz, Alcaraz and Basilashvili winning, but our underdog picks of Cecchinato and Broady unfortunately lost. We now enter the business end of Cagliari and Marbella, with the quarter finals, which should offer not only some entertaining contests but also some value.

Fritz to beat Bedene 4/5 (Cagliari)

We backed Fritz in R2, and he delivered a convincing 6-2 7-6(4) win over Martin, breaking the Slovakian 5 times. His big serve and groundstrokes carried him through, and we expect them to again here. Fritz’s weapons are much bigger than Bedene’s, meaning that he will dominate the rallies from the back of the court, find it easier to put the ball away on the slow surface and he will find it much easier to hold serve.

Ramos-Vinolas to beat Gombos 2/5 (Marbella)

The veteran clay-court specialist was made to work in his opening match, but eventually overcame Berankis 6-3 4-6 6-3. The Spaniard is in excellent form on the dirt this year, reaching the final in the Cordoba ATP250 and the semi-finals in Buenos Aires ATP250, losing to the Cerundolo brothers (Juan-Manuel and Francisco). Gombos, on the other hand, had only played one match on clay in 2021 before this week, and had just one win on any surface (vs world number 349 Sels) and 7 losses. Ramos-Vinolas’ superior consistency from the back of the court, as well as his movement on this surface gives him the edge over Gombos here.

Munar to beat Ivashka 4/11 (Marbella)

From one Spanish clay-court specialist to another, Munar has also been in great form on the clay, reaching the final of the Challenger event at this same venue (lost to Mager in 3 sets). His good form has carried over into the ATP250 event, battering Laaksonen 6-1 6-4 and 2nd seed Fognini 6-2 6-1. He has won 20 matches on clay and lost 5 just this year. In comparison, Ivashka has played just 3, with 2 of them coming this week. Like in the previous match described, Munar’s superior consistency and movement on the surface makes him the favourite here in our eyes.

Treble: 2.44/1

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